The run-up to the elections
As elections draw closer in Sierra Leone, we look at the two leading political parties’ chances of victory in the small but resource-rich West African nation, whose 3.2 million voters head to the polls on June 24, 2023.
We affirm that there are two major contenders – The candidate for the ruling SLPP, Julius Maada Bio and the candidate for the APC Samura Mathew Wilson Kamara, who incidentally contested the 2018 elections that brought the current government in power.
This piece predicts a clear win for the ruling SLPP based on an inferential assessment of 4 variables as follows: (1) the power of campaign promises and the benefits of delivery integrity (2) the assurance of a second term for any incumbent Party; (3) the level of internal cohesion within a Party that bolsters effective elections campaign management; and (4) the positive effects of multilateral agencies’ confidence in an incumbent government on the eve of elections.
The power of campaign promises and the benefits of delivery integrity
The SLPP came into office with three big key components in their agenda that were sure to win hearts and minds across the country when effectively implemented. These were education, health, and agriculture in their Human Capital Development agenda. They knew the country’s problem was perennial because the standard of education had dropped abysmally, so they invested 22% of the national budget and introduced Free Quality Education that added over 2.2 million children in school, built more schools, launched the school feeding programme to maximise retention rate and raised the country’s profile as a global leader in education transformation.
Also, the SLPP government ended the decadence of failure in healthcare delivery. The integrated African health observatory report released in March 2023, revealed that up until 2017 Sierra Leone was among the top three countries in the African Region with high maternal mortality rates with 1,120 deaths per 100 000 live births. In 2020, after just two years of President Bio in government the maternal mortality rate dropped by nearly 60%, that is 443 deaths per 100 000 live births. He invested 11% of the national budget, almost twice what was in 2018, in fulfillment of the 2018 New Direction Manifesto Commitment 11, which promised to improve health care under Cluster One of the government’s Human Capital Development agenda.
Sierra Leone remains the brightest example to date because of the way it implemented its COVID-19 prevention and containment measures without exacting so much cost and pain on its citizens and international travelers. As of today, since 3 January 2020, the country recorded 7,762 confirmed cases with only 125 deaths, one of the least in the world. Today over 8,124,614 vaccine doses have been administered, making Sierra Leone one of the very few countries in Africa to attain a 70 percent COVID-19 vaccination.
The SLPP is, therefore, going into the June elections with the integrity that they do what they promise, captured in the popular slogan “Tok-n-Do”. On their part, instead of articulating alternative policy ideas, for five years the opposition APC spent all their energy on trickery, fomenting disorder, and incessantly complaining about anything, everything. Whereas the SLPP has been very clear regarding their policy measures toward national development, the loudest voices on the other side, the APC, have been calling for riots, and are now threatening a boycott of the elections if their demands are not met.
The SLPP and their flag-bearer, President Bio, have continued to demonstrate a preference for winning votes on the basis of ideas. In their messages to the people, the Party has articulated promises and ideas that seek to win hearts around education, increased access to energy, and better access to health.
The assurance of a second term for an incumbent Party
The two-term factor suggests that any political party in power is almost assured of two five-year terms. It is proven in international literature on democracy around the world that second terms are almost assured for any incumbent government.
In Sierra Leone, the notion is deeply rooted in the psyche of voters, that once a party is first elected to form a government it should be allowed to do two terms. This notion is reinforced by the fact that President Tejan Kabba served between 1996 and 2007 and President Ernest Koroma was literally allowed to serve between 2007 and 2018. The majority of voters in the country, therefore, see a second term for President Bio and the SLPP as a mission accomplished.
The level of internal cohesion within a Party that bolsters effective elections campaign management
It is only when there is internal cohesion within a political Party that it can effectively raise money, organise and implement campaign activities. The opposition APC falters badly in this regard, beginning firstly, with the fact that the relationship between the flag-bearer, Dr Samura Kamara and his running-mate, Chernor Maju Bah, is nowhere close to cordial. Eddie Turay, the former High Commissioner to the UK in the APC government, has said that Samura Kamara’s running-mate was imposed on him.
Consequently, there is no teamwork between the two. On the contrary, the teamwork seen between the SLPP candidate, President Bio and his running mate, Dr Mohamed Juldeh Jalloh has been unprecedented in the history of politics in the country. For the first time in the recent history of the country’s politics, a president and his vice president have come along as a team in the last five years, united and committed to the cause and course of leading a politically polarised country that badly needed a team of like minds to restore hope in Sierra Leoneans.
Apparently, some of the bigwigs in the APC have distanced themselves from the campaign. One of them, Diana Konomanyi, had her house burnt down in Kono because she refused to openly join the Samura-Chericoco campaign. Two key party members, former VP Victor Bockarie Foh and Former Minister and adviser to the APC government resigned and joined President Bio, who already had an alliance with the NGC leader, Dr Kandeh Kolleh Yumkella. This is happening at a time when it is suggested that Ernest Bai Koroma, the former president, was apparently withdrawing his financial support, leaving the campaign in the lurch.
The positive effects of multilateral agencies’ confidence in an incumbent government on the eve of elections
Ahead of the 2018 elections, most donors like the IMF, AfDB, the British Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office, the EU and the World Bank that provided budgetary support either cut down or put a hold on funds for the Ernest Bai Koroma-led-APC government. At least there was a confirmation by Africa Confidential, that the IMF indeed stopped throwing money into what it described as “the APC’s big black hole that is fuelling massive corruption in high places and used for funding the party’s election campaign”.
In contrast today, on the eve of elections in 2023, the IMF disbursed US$20.7 million as Extended Credit Facility. The provision of the facility followed a review mission by the IMF, which conveyed the conclusion that the incumbent government’s economic management measures were positive. The action by the IMF and World Bank conveys to the rest of the international community a kind of certificate of clean bill of health for the SLPP. Essentially, it says the SLPP government can be trusted.
