Why it matters to understand the APC’s posture now
There is a context in which to understand the elections results that come out after the 24th of June polls, which will end in a victory for the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP). It is natural with politics everywhere that an opposition would try to portray themselves as being the most popular in a pending election and mostly play victims when they lose.
Even in the face of credible polls, in the case of advanced societies, that show the incumbent Party is on the verge of winning an election, it is natural that an opposition will put up a brave face and still amplify their own prospects. This is what the APC is doing naturally.
What the APC is doing dangerously, however, is that they are insisting that the only way their Party will lose the elections will be by fraud. APC leaders need the fraud narrative as a way to save face, to stem the wrath of their supporters. APC supporters need the fraud narrative to assuage their shame or use it as an excuse to cause mayhem when the elections are lost. Here is what the International Community should know to understand that the APC has no basis to expect a win:
The ethnic political mathematics currently favour the SLPP
Politics in Sierra Leone is all about ethnic mathematics. When the APC wins a general election, they do so, relying heavily on the consolidated votes of Temnes and Limbas from the North. It is these same Temnes and Limbas who give APC votes in the Western Area where they have a combined majority population. Consolidated votes of Temnes and Limbas are never enough for the APC to win a general election.
The APC has always relied on the votes of minority tribes like the Kono ethnic group to gain a minor lead in elections. For the 24th June elections, International Observers should note, firstly, that there is no such support from Konos for the APC this time round. Considered as the ‘swing state’ in the Sierra Leone elections parlance, the district has thrown its support behind the SLPP based on evidence that abound.
International Observers should note, secondly, that the evidence from the 2018 elections results and bye-elections results since then, suggest that the SLPP has eaten impressively into the APC’s Temnes and Limbas ethnic support base. Therefore, without a consolidated Temne and Limba ethnic support-base, and Kono ethnic support, the expectation should be that APC is set to lose the 2023 elections woefully.
The vast majority of Fullahs, probably the third largest group in the country today, support the SLPP. SLPP is a powerful force today in Falaba District dominated by the Koranko ethnic group. The vast majority of Susus, Madingos, Kissis, and Sherbros have always supported the SLPP. It is this pattern of ethnic support for the SLPP that takes us to the point made hereafter about the advantages the Party holds under the Proportional Representation electoral system.
The Proportional Representation system heavily favours the SLPP
The lie that the APC has always pushed and relied on as an electoral advantage has been the Party’s description of places as their “strongholds”. It is true, like in all other democracies, that a Party would have certain places where they are always expected to do well. This is the case also in Sierra Leone. In the case of APC, however, the margin by which the APC wins in their “strongholds” often hides the popularity of the SLPP. For example, the APC would win 70% of votes in a constituency and still declare the place their “stronghold”; hiding the fact that 30% of the population there voted for the SLPP.
The APC is aware of the SLPP’s significant presence in their so-called “strongholds”; that’s why they hate PR system. In the 2002 general elections, SLPP got 2 out of the 8 seats in the APC’s so-called “stronghold” of Bombali District. This easily translates into roughly 23% of Bombali District’s total votes, which invariably went to the Presidential candidate of the SLPP.
In the APC’s so-called Western Area “stronghold” SLPP got 4 out of the 8 Parliamentary seats in the West-West Electoral District and got 5 out of the 8 seats in the West-East Electoral District. In the APC’s so-called Port Loko District “stronghold” SLPP got 3 out of the 8 Parliamentary seats. In the APC’s so-called Tonkolili District “stronghold” SLPP got 2 out of the 8 Parliamentary seats. In the APC’s so-called Kambia District “stronghold” SLPP got 5 out of the 8 Parliamentary seats. SLPP took all the seats in Kono.
This was all in the 2002 general elections. Therefore, there should be no surprise when the SLPP under President Julius Maada Bio repeats the same feat as President Ahmad Tejan-Kabbah attained in 2002.
SLPP has always been more popular than APC or has a better and greater spread of support across Sierra Leone
Across the country, the SLPP has always been the Party that is shown to be most loved by all Sierra Leoneans as expressed by their votes. Firstly, the SLPP unlike the APC has never miserably lost any general elections. In 1996, the APC for instance, got only 5.1% of the votes of Sierra Leoneans; to secure a paltry 5 seats in Parliament. The SLPP on the other hand, won 27 of the 68 seats in Parliament at the time. In 2002, the SLPP got 83 of the 112 seats in Parliament, while APC got only 27. The SLPP’s President Ahmad Tejan-Kabbah went on to win the Presidential elections by 70%.
SLPP’s popularity has been growing in opposition strongholds since the 2018 elections
The 2018 elections results showed that the SLPP increased its share of votes across APC’s so-called “strongholds” at the time at an average of 10%. There is no plausible reason to believe that given the investments made in energy, education, infrastructure, health, and social protection, the SLPP’s margin of support in these areas will go down. Bye-elections results since 2018 have, in fact, confirmed that the SLPP’s popularity has been rising in the once so-called “strongholds” of the APC.
EDITOR’S NOTE: The author remains unknown so that the focus stays on the merits of the content of the letter.
